market news & numismatic history
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Even though spot gold has dipped and remains volatile, high end rarities are heavily sought after. Even more common coins of premium quality are showing %15 premium over coins of average quality. While many investors are sweating over the ups and down in other markets keen buyers are searching out the best high end coins they can find. These rare specimens will be the big money makers over the next 5-10 years, while common, more bullion sensitive coins are lighting up the short term.
Laurence Marvin, LA Stock Market Examiner
All during 2007 the Big TV Business and Print Media waged a war against GOLD and precious metals as choice for investing. When the 2007 Bear Trap closed and began the “first leg” down of the start of the “great generational Bear market”.
The Business media while stocks were in “free fall”…GOLD was soaring and trading higher every week closing the year 2007 at $834.90. While making a 2007 high of $843.20 during December of 2007. Going from a low of 607 to 834 at year end. Needless to say the Media & Wall Street were again working over time to try and tell the public that precious metals were not a real investment…that stocks would rebound soon.
In early March of 2008 GOLD traded back over the 1980 high with ease. But again all of the economic programs would kill any more possible upside in Gold, Silver or other precious metals for several years…if ever. The 2008 year was a another key consolidation pattern with lost of volatility that created very large trading profits for those who were serious. In October 2008 the Gold market made a final low at $ 681 before relaunching a rally to blow past the $1000 level for the last time, before testing 1200 resistance level December of 2009. Reaching a high of $1226.40 and closing 2009 at closing on a year level for the first time ever in history over $1000 level. That close was $1095.20!
Now all during 2009 again ALL of the broadcast TV business shows who had been on the wrong side of history. Refused to allow the public any perspective in comparison of precious metals again out performing stock indexes again and again… are you seeing a pattern. Metals have been kicking Wall Streets ass big time for several years and the media is trying as hard as possible to thwart or scare the public away from GOLD.
Why? If your making money in GOLD then you do not need to by bad stocks or bad mutual funds. Now every time GOLD has move through a new price level the media is always telling the public…oh this is the end. Gold is over priced, Gold does not pay any dividends…neither do the vast majority of stocks! Also look at the yields on T-bills or your passbook saving account. Gold actually is currency neutral and also reflects the true rate of inflation! So almost every day over the last 6 years…the media and Wall Street is praying for GOLD to crash. It is not going to happen.
The US Dollar is in a full blown melt down. Even following the Bernanke Doctrine of “printing money” to create inflation as part of the “Big Brother” socialist stimulus program will never work! So.. as GOLD has moved higher and now has tested the 1850-1925 resistance level the media keeps the same old scare tactics. This week as the market has tested the resistance levels, this volatility is not a big deal. Also I have warned anyone who is paying attention or reading my twitter account, to always have “trailing stops” and SELL covered CALLS to help book any profits built from buying at all the lower levels. Or as protection for late and high price buyers from volatility swings like today.
All of what we see today is part of the forecast volatility cycle put into print here at my “Examiner.com” work. The reality is as we all know that commodities exchanges have raised margins trying to protect brokerage firms that have been short GOLD and Silver all the way up. But the reality is that 2011 is seeing an almost endless buying of Tons of Gold at a rate greater than anytime in history! Why? Because these governments know that any country that does not protect it’s currency with Gold reserves will see destruction like the US Dollar succumbing to now! I published a story on central bank GOLD buying just a couple of week ago.
Now for all the whiners who kept saying they could not BUY GOLD because the price was to high..should now be able to use the large volatility and consolidation process to get on board. But to all of our valued clients who started buying back in 2006, 2007 and the bid dip in late 2008. I have over and over advised to use covered CALL or Short Futures against physical longs of GOLD as a way hold onto low priced gold. Same advice for Silver also. More important is that this consolidation of Gold is moving back into the army of international buyers seeking to increase physical holdings of GOLD.
The support under the market is massive the consolidation range could be very wide. The harder the volatility pattern the better opportunity for buying in a over sold situation.
A large major buy window between 1450 to 1550 is a large opportunity. In the short term basis 1575 to 1525 is another near term buying window. While Wall Street and the media who have been wrong on the metals markets for over the last 10 years, again wants to pretend they know anything about the gold market. We are still in the early stages of a very long term bull market. All that is happening is the public is dumping weak high priced positions that allows the “exchange members” to get long and the take the market up higher beyond the 2000 level soon.
The entire game is people taking profits from very recent BUY positions that appear to date back to May of this year and the 1575 to 1475 zone. All investors need to only trade with “Stop Loss” orders and hedge any physical purchases of gold or silver, by using “Covered Calls” and Selling Futures contracts. Us “trailing stops” under your high level priced Longs from the May 2011 entry points.
The US Dollar will keep losing the currency wars due to failing federal reserve and white house economic policy. Central banks are ready to buy hundreds of tons more of GOLD this year…if it is offered. Trade or Die Baby.
Government calls decision vindication for the American people
Strength seen in all areas of the rare coin market in Aug. 11 Platinum Night Auction
DALLAS, TX – A unique 1855-S $3 PR64 Cameo NGC, CAC, Ex: Golden Gate Collection, a supreme rarity in the world of numismatics, brought $1,322,500 – along with applause in the auction room – as the top lot of Heritage Auctions’ Aug. 11-12 Signature® U.S. Coin & Platinum Night Auction at the Marriott-Chicago O’Hare (all prices include 15% Buyer’s Premium).
Overall the auction realized more than $31.345 million (not including Post Auction sales), as 5,154 bidders vied for 7,370 lots, translating into an impressive sell-through rate of 91% by total lot value and 95% by total lots.
“These are great results with strong showings in every corner of the market,” said Greg Rohan, President of Auctions. “Collectors are continuing to pursue the top rarities that we gather for each auction and non-traditional buyers are looking to temper their portfolios against the tumult of world financial markets. The combination resulted in final figures that were nothing short of remarkable.”
Directly illustrating the interest across the spectrum of types, a trio of diverse coins rounded out the top quartet of the auction. An 1893-S Morgan Silver Dollar, MS67 NGC, from the Norweb and Jack Lee Collections, and the highest-graded NGC-Certified specimen, took the second spot in the auction with a $546,250 price realized, giving collectors of the ever-popular Morgan Dollars something to cheer about. An 1863 $10 PR65 Deep Cameo PCGS, CAC, the sole finest at PCGS, charmed collectors into several rounds of intense bidding before finishing the auction $299,000 and an historic 1796 $2 1/2 No Stars MS61 PCGS, CAC, the finest that Heritage has offered in three years, realized $276,000.
FORTUNE — After taking a breather there for a few months, gold prices have resumed their seemingly inexorable rise to infinity. Amidst the mayhem of last week, the metal briefly touched $1,800-per-ounce before sliding back to $1,770 as the stock market rebounded. Those “cash-for-gold” signs you used to see only in distressed neighborhoods? Don’t look now, but your mother was probably selling a few sets of earrings last week.
To get a read on things, Fortune caught up with Rachel Benepe, co-manager of the $3.1 billion First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGDX). Along with Abhay Deshpande, Benepe stepped into the very big shoes of Jean-Marie Eveillard when he transitioned to a senior advisor role at the fund in March 2009. And they haven’t tarnished the fund’s reputation yet: Had you invested $10,000 in the fund five years ago—which only requires a minimum of $2,500—you would be sitting on $18,766 today, as opposed to losing money in the S&P 500.
Let’s get right to the point. Are people insane to be buying gold at these levels?
We don’t forecast the price of gold, and that’s because we view it as a hedge. Considered from that perspective, no one can really say if it’s too expensive or not, as long as the price moves for rational reasons. Look at the price changes since Lehman failed in 2008. Every move of gold has happened for a rational reason. We haven’t seen a single move out of context. Last week, there were obvious issues in the U.S. and Europe that kind of came out of left field, and gold hit $1,800. Is someone insane for wanting to protect their portfolio? I don’t think so. Keep in mind, too, that more and more people are becoming aware that it can serve as hedge. That, too, has been driving up the price. But to say it’s mispriced is the wrong way to look at it. It protects your purchasing power. Gold should go up when equities down. It doesn’t matter which way it’s moving, either, as long as it’s happening in a rational way.
Do I sell my rare coins now that gold is so high? NO. Many investors are under the illusion that because gold is at record levels, their U.S. Rare Coins are as well. Gold at record levels actually indicates that it is a buyer’s market in rare coins. Historically rare coins experience their own market highs years after bullion peaks.
Take for example the common $20 Gold Saint Gaudens vs. Gold Bullion. Between 1975 and 1980 gold rose from $133.00 to $850.00 During the same time the Saint Gaudens in MS-65 went from $220.00 to $1,250. As gold started to fall from its peak of $850.00 down to $310.00 by 1982 the Saint Gaudens Shot up, way up. By 1989 it reached its own peak of $4,400.00(while gold was a mere $395.00).
Bottom line; wait for the bullion market to significantly soften before looking to sell your rarities. Gold bullion and rare coins are not attached at the hip. If anything, gold going up helps boost the confidence of buyers looking into rare coins while gold going down boosts the price of rare coins. Take advantage of the fact that the hordes are busy buying gold bullion and neglecting the true rarities.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Stock-shocked investors are fleeing to gold, pushing the precious metal to new heights.
Gold reached a new intraday high of $1,782.50 per ounce in electronic trading before ending at $1,743. That’s an increase of $29.80, or about 1.7%, compared to its Monday close. On Monday, gold broke $1,700 for the first time.
The current flight to gold has been by a nasty stock market plunge. On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 624 points, or about 5.5%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped nearly 7%. It was the worst day on Wall Street since the 2008 fiscal crisis.
The rise in gold and the plunge in stocks are the result of Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. debt on Friday from AAA to AA+. This has undermined faith in the United States and the contagion has spread to markets around the globe.
“Against this backdrop, together with strong Asian gold demand and continued purchasing by central banks, gold continues to demonstrate its attributes as a hedge against credit risk, currency and inflation/deflation risk,” wrote Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment at the World Gold Council, in an e-mail to CNNMoney.
Jono Remington-Hobbs, precious metals analyst for Fastmarkets Limited in London, said that gold has been on a 10-year boom. It has recently become more valuable as other safe havens, such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, lost their luster.
The key to gold, he said, is that it’s a strong asset now, just like it was a strong asset 2,000 years ago.
“An ounce of gold would have bought you a great suit then; it would buy you a great suit now,” said Remington-Hobbs.
While the economic malaise has been a boon for gold, which is up 15% over the last month, it has had the opposite effect on oil, whose price has plunged more than 16% over the last month.
Oil ended at $79.30 a barrel Tuesday. Just two weeks ago, oil was flirting with $100 per barrel.
Gold is also still far from its true peak, when adjusted for inflation. The metal hit its real record on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation to 2011 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,261.33 an ounce. 
Mixed results were experienced at the summer F.U.N. show in Orlando. Attendance was moderate, but not expected to be anywhere near the overwhelming attendance usually seen at the January F.U.N. conventions. Friday’s attendance may have been somewhat diminished because of the final Space Shuttle launch, which drew in an estimated one million spectators. Not surprisingly, given the current market conditions, pickings were slim for some dealers at the show who were looking to purchase high-end coins. Dealer inventories have been lacking in such material for many months, and astute sellers will likely wait until the upcoming ANA convention in Chicago next month to offer their wares . Sales of lower to middle priced coins were reported to be much more active than for rare coins of premium quality in the higher price range which were scarce and remain so. Heritage’s Orlando auction hammered a total in excess of $11.2 million. We have listed a few of the many highlights herein.
Dealers are finding that the motivations of customers have largely changed—as a result of economic considerations—from buying as collectors, to buying out of fear for financial preservation. This fear based buying most often focuses on purchasing bullion products. However, there are those who are moving into rare coins as well. Undoubtedly, some of this has to do with information found on the internet and other media. Coins promoted by many of these sources include common generic material that can be purchased in bulk, such as $20 Saint-Gaudens and Circulated Morgan Dollars.
The Langbord trial, regarding the family’s ten 1933 $20 Saint-Gaudens, got under way July 7 in Philadelphia. A jury was selected, and opening arguments were presented. The government contends that the coins were stolen, as none of them were legally released into circulation. The Langbords contend that there was a window of time when the public was allowed to make exchanges for freshly minted Gold coins, and there’s a real possibility that either directly or indirectly this is how Joan Langbord’s father, Israel Switt, obtained these ultra rare Double Eagles. The trial is expected to last about three weeks. The 51st annual Missouri Coin Festival is scheduled for July 28-30 at the St. Charles Convention Center. Scotsman auction house will hold their Midwest Summer Sale July 29 in conjunction with the show. The auction will include an eclectic mix of US coins and Paper Money, with a group of sixty-five modern Chinese rarities.
There’s uncanny correlation between the debt ceiling and the price of gold. Now that we know the final amount of the debt ceiling hike, somewhere in the $2.5 trillion ballpark, it allows us to extrapolate where gold will end up as a result of the debt ceiling hike. A simple correlation rule of thumb allows us to predict that gold will be at $1,950 by the end of the year if it simply retains it close correlation to the debt ceiling. Should Bernanke announce that he will additionally need to monetize some or all of this incremental debt amount, we anticipate that gold will be well over $2,000 by the end of the year, courtesy of yet another round of accelerated dollar debasement, which also means that real gains in US stocks will be negated courtesy of the devaluation of the currency in which they are priced. The same, however, does not apply for gold, which with every passing day is priced in nothing but itself.
Rare Coin Investor 