Rare Coin Investor

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-correction-looking-more-likely-morgan-stanley-2017-10

Morgan Stanley warns that a near-term pullback in the S&P 500 could be coming.

Earnings season can be a euphoric time for stocks.

It’s a time when companies have the opportunity to show off growth that matches their valuations, and it can encourage investment by traders looking to put money to work.

But that may not be the case this time around, Morgan Stanley warns.

A big part of that has to do with how investors approach earnings season. When investors anticipate strong results, stocks tend to rally heading into the season only to fade as results are actually reported, the firm says.

This scenario has played out in a relatively benign way twice already this year, with the maximum loss reaching just 3%. But it’s different this time around, with the benchmark S&P 500 holding roughly just half of its previous upside, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts.

“If stocks follow the pattern they have been all year, actual earnings season will be a sell the news event and we could have a decent pull back or consolidation,” a group of equity strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a client note. “Near term, a correction is looking more likely.”

So what could cause this decline, which the firm says could stretch further than 5%? Wilson & Co. lay out five possible negative catalysts:

-The unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s massive balance sheet

-Tax-cut legislation proves to be more difficult than simply making promises

-The announcement of a new Fed chief could “disrupt financial conditions”

-The US dollar, fresh off multiyear lows, looks to be reversing to the upside

-Leading economic indicators are hitting extremes, suggesting peaks are “more likely than not”

With all that said, Morgan Stanley is far from calling the end of the 8-1/2-year bull market. The firm is simply warning about the possibility of a relatively mild pullback from what have been record-high valuations.

In fact, the firm is the most bullish on Wall Street, with a 2,700 target on the S&P 500 by the end of first quarter 2018. That’s 5.6% above the index’s closing price on Monday.

As such, Wilson recommends that investors use whatever weakness results from a potential correction as an opportunity to load back up on equity exposure. In other words, buy the dip — the unofficial slogan of the unstoppable bull market.

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2017/11/greatcollections-selling-some-great-collections.html#

1865-S Coronet gold $2.50 quarter eagle realizes $36,001 in Oct. 29 sale.

An 1865-S Coronet gold $2.50 quarter eagle sold during an Oct. 29 GreatCollections online auction for more than double its value listed in published price guides.

Graded and encapsulated Mint State 63 by Professional Coin Grading Service and stickered with a green label by Certified Acceptance Corp. as being exceptional for the grade, the coin realized $36,001.14, which includes the 10 percent buyer’s fee. Twelve active bidders placed 49 bids.

Russell said the underbidder, who was outbid by $1,000.01, had anticipated winning with his $31,001 bid to start a box of 20 of coins “that have everything going for it — finest PCGS/CAC, super fresh (never appeared on the market before) and so forth.”

The coin was one of two PCGS submissions recorded in MS-63, with one submission higher at MS-64.

Coin World’s Coin Values lists a price of $13,000 in MS-62, but lists no value for the coin in MS-63. The PCGS Price Guide values the coin at $15,000 in MS-63.

“The coin was one of many highlights from a collection in California that is being sold by GreatCollections,” Russell said. “The coins were graded for the first time this year by PCGS. There are still amazing coins that have never seen the light of day coming onto the market, it’s what makes our job so enjoyable to see newly discovered coins like this and seeing the vast bidder interest”.

Another gold coin highlight from the Oct. 29 sale was an 1861-D Indian Head dollar graded Fine 12, the lowest grade for any gold dollar struck at the Dahlonega Mint in Georgia in 1861.

Coin Values lists a price of $13,500 in Fine 12. The coin realized $26,437.50.

A total of 12 bidders placed 44 bids combined for the gold coin.

 http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/take-advantage-lower-prices-buying

Inflation is a concern for everyone, but what about deflation? Deflation is what the entire collectibles industry, be it coins or other collectibles, has been experiencing for several years. What we in coin collecting have bee is a dip in the spot price of gold or silver.

This relentless price decline has impacted almost all coins, not just the more common collectibles. Scarce to rare coins have not performed well in some time.

As the price of both gold and silver continue to slump, it becomes increasingly difficult for those of us who are active collectors or commodity investors to understand why more people aren’t realizing just how cheap both bullion and coins have become.

This low price is becoming a boon to active collectors, some of whom are increasingly taking advantage of the depressed price of better date or better condition coins. There aren’t sufficient collectors chasing these coins for the demand to outstrip supply – at the moment. At some point, people need to take stock and bond profits off the table, going after coins and other collectibles with their financial gains.

In the meantime, if you are an active collector, enjoy what’s available. You can shop around. You can be picky. But then make a decision and buy what you have hankered after. The only way you can benefit from lower prices is to make additions to your collection.