January 3, 2011

>Commodities Surge

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Reuters) – Oil prices hit a 26-month high over $92 a barrel on Friday, closing the year up 15 percent on expectations that the economic recovery will drive demand growth next year and send prices into triple digits.

Strong growth from Asia, especially China, and a rebound in demand from recovering economies elsewhere fueled a four-month rally that knocked crude over the $70-$80 range it held for much of the year.

U.S. crude oil futures surged to a 2010 high on Friday, settling up $1.54 a barrel at $91.38 a barrel, after touching $92.06, the highest level since October 7, 2008. The settlement marked the largest end-year price since 2007.

London Brent gained $1.66 to settle at $94.75 a barrel, its highest end-December settlement since 2007 and up nearly 22 percent on the year.

Global output jumped 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a Reuters poll, the biggest increase since 2004, and another healthy 1.5 million bpd gain is forecast for next year.

While many experts say oil could break $100 a barrel in the new year, they don’t expect a surge to levels near $150 seen in 2008, when crude first broke into triple digits.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would step in to cool off markets if they headed into territory that could endanger the global economic recovery, analysts

said.

“At some point, I would expect OPEC to increase production, whether through an extra cargo here or there to cash in on high prices or whether by a more concerted effort to calm people down,” said Tim Evans, analyst for Citi Futures Perspective.

Recent gains in the dollar could also help cap oil’s momentum by increasing the cost of dollar-denominated currencies for holders of other currencies.

U.S. crude averaged $79.61 a barrel for the year, second only to 2008’s record $99.75. Crude shot to a high of $147 a barrel in July of that year, before the global recession hit demand and sent prices below $33.

Cold weather in the United States and Europe and OPEC’s decision to keep production levels steady earlier this month have added to bullish sentiment this month. Analysts are watching to see how much of the recent rally has been caused by seasonal weather demand and how much has been driven by more structural consumption

growth.

Speculators betting the economic recovery will boost demand have poured into oil markets, with net long positions held by money managers in U.S. oil futures hitting fresh records in December.

U.S. crude rallied back from early losses on Friday in light holiday trade of about 275,000 contracts — about half the level seen over the past 30 days — bouncing off lows near $89 a barrel.

“We’re seeing exaggerated price swings because of low volume of trade but there is technical support around $89 a barrel and the rally will continue to march into next year,” said Gene McGillian, analyst for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Kerr in New York, Randi Fabi in Singapore and Dmitry Zhdannikov in London; Writing by Matthew Robinson; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

December 22, 2010

>Safe Haven Investing

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“When it comes to safe haven investing, people immediately think about physical assets such as gold, silver, oil, land, real estate. There is a reason for this: Physical things have intrinsic value. The value of a paper fiat currency, or a stock, can fall to zero. But the value of any physical asset can never fall to zero. The intrinsic values of physical assets are the reasons why they preserve wealth during times of financial and economic crises.”*

While like any other investment there is risk, the nature of rare coins as an antique systematically provides investors with a sense of long term stability, a stability you can’t expect with traditional investments like stocks or bonds.

Investing in rare coins now, no matter what the current market conditions, at least provides the comfort of knowing that rare coins will ALWAYS be rare and valuable, and always be sought after by those who can afford them.

The tangibility of wealth, knowing you can preserve it in uncertain economic times proves, every other decade or so, the most profitable safe haven investment.

Governments and banks fail. Rare coins will always be a rare and lucrative parking for capital in an atmosphere of uncertainty.


*seekingalpha.com
November 30, 2010

>Top Democrats and Replublicans back 1099 requirement repeal

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Top Democrats are uniting with Republicans in a show of support for small business owners: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said Friday that he will introduce legislation to repeal the expanded 1099 reporting requirements set to take effect in 2012.

“I have heard small businesses loud and clear and I am responding to their concerns,” Baucus said in a prepared statement. “Small businesses are the backbone of our economy in my home state of Montana and across the country, and they need to focus their efforts on creating good-paying jobs — not filing paperwork.”

The measure was adopted in March as part of the massive health care reform law, but only came to light months later when advocacy groups drew attention to the provision. Starting in 2012, businesses will be required to issue 1099 tax forms not only to contracted workers (as they already do) but also to any individual or corporation from which they buy more than $600 in goods or services in a year.

Tax experts say that change would require business filers — including freelancers and sole proprietors — to issue millions of new 1099 forms each year.

Business owners say that the change — intended to raise tax revenue by increasing compliance — will swamp them with an onerous flood of paperwork. Republicans have lead the charge for repeal of what they called a “job-killing” requirement. National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson warned that the burden of filing all those additional forms “may turn out to be disproportionate” to the benefit it will deliver.

In September, Sen. Mike Johanns, a R.-Neb., proposed a measure to repeal the requirement entirely. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, countered with a more moderate proposal at the same time, but neither measure passed.

Since then, however, President Obama indicated that he would support a repeal of the measure.

Baucus did not indicate when he plans to introduce repeal legislation. His office did not immediately return a call seeking further comment.

Small business advocates have been lobbying hard to get the measure repealed.

“We are pleased to see that our leaders on both sides of the aisle are willing to do the right thing for our nation’s job creators,” Dan Danner, president and CEO of National Federation of Independent Business, said in a prepared statement. “Small business should be the one thing that unifies our leaders as we work to come out of these difficult economic times.”

November 15, 2010

>Why There’s Gold Fever (CNN)

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Princeton, New Jersey (CNN) — There is at present a profound uncertainty about currencies. That is why the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, created such a stir with a brief reference to an enhanced role for gold in the course of a plea for a more sustainable international exchange rate system.

The revival of interest in a golden measure of value derives from two fundamental sources. First, there is a question about our personal sense of worth. The aftermath of the economic crisis has destroyed our confidence in the reliability of conventional paper money.

We need money as a store of value, but in the course of the crisis it has also become a tool of government policy. Looser monetary policy or “quantitative easing” can help to get the economy moving again. But the purposes of money may conflict and collide. When money becomes too much of a policy tool, the function of reliably measuring value gets chipped away.

We look at gold when we are really upset about big price changes. Over the past two years, market sentiment has shifted abruptly from fear of deflation to fear of inflation.

The crisis has produced a profound shock, in which some prices (especially housing) have moved sharply lower while others (notably foodstuffs and some raw materials) have increased. The movement of prices is actually an important part of the adjustment process: that is, Americans should devote less of their resources to building and filling mega-size houses. But the price changes involved are deeply discomforting: The prices that are falling represent a major store of wealth, because people viewed their house as a sort of source of cash; and the prices that are rising are a major part of daily expenditure.

The appeal of gold would be that it might be a better way of storing value. But it would not avoid the harsh task of adjustment at a personal level.

Secondly, there is an international dimension to the concern with gold. The crisis has intensified international conflict. It has pushed countries to compete much more aggressively for markets, and to worry that other countries are using unfair means to push their exports.

Americans think that China has maintained an artificially undervalued exchange rate, while Mediterranean countries accuse Germany of having devised the Euro as a monetary unit that gives Germany permanent cost advantages. Even former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan now says that U.S. monetary policy is aimed at the weakening of the dollar. As a consequence, the victims start to retaliate.

Both the rhetoric and the consequences in terms of exchange rate actions seem to recall the currency wars of the 1930s, when the world spiraled down into protectionism.

Can the countries of the world sit down at a table and hammer out an agreement on what exchange rates can be? No previous attempt at such an exercise has been successful. The exchange rates adopted at Bretton Woods in 1944 needed to be extensively modified in the late 1940s, and the Smithsonian conference of 1971, which tried to work out a new system, broke down within a year and a half as countries ignored any need for monetary constraint.

The appeal of gold is that it sets a clear limit on the extent to which policy actions can manipulate exchange rates. But for nations and individuals, it does not in any way remove the pain from living in altered circumstances.

The gold standard worked reasonably well in the 19th century, but even then it did not produce complete price stability. In the absence of new sources of gold, it exerted a downward influence on prices; then, in the 1890s, new gold started to flow from South Africa, Australia and Alaska, and the result was mild inflation.

A real effort at the monetization of gold today would produce a much more dramatic version of the same sort of logic. First, there would be a major scramble for gold and the current gold bubble would swell to even greater proportions.

That would provide very large incentives to existing producers of gold in South Africa and Russia to intensify extraction, but also to others to look for nonconventional sources, such as the bulk processing of seawater to extract the very small gold content. The result would be an initial deflation and then a colossal inflation that would make the 19th century experience look trivial.

The late-19th century critics who thought that there must be a better way of storing value than gold were right. But such a search demands sustained attention to methods of limiting the tendency of both individuals and governments to behave in a way that produces short-term gains while sacrificing the longer term good of stability. Self-limitation, rather than the magic fix of a new precious metal-based currency, should be the real golden rule.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Harold James.

October 26, 2010

>Understanding High End, Low Pop Pricing.

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“If you look at the charts you’ll see some BIG gains for Liberty Seated Dimes. Heritage had an auction of a fantastic set, some finest known examples, some highest graded, none better, only one graded that grade [type] coins and the prices were very juicy.

This is one thing about our price guide that you should understand; I looked at some of these prices and a coin was like $15,000 and I look back in the historical and its $15,000 for five years, well… you know obviously that coin was worth more than $15,000 in 2008 but worth more than it was in 2005, but sometimes the coin doesn’t sell, it’s the only one, then it comes to auction and brings $48,000.

So we go over those real high pops and we sometimes raise them or lower them where it makes sense. But it really takes the appearance at an auction or in a dealers price guide or we see something at a show trade hands or find out about a private sale before we can really do something with those unique coins.”
Transcript of PCGS Founder Mr. Hall’s “Coin Market Analysis”.
October 26, 2010

>When Will Gold Slow and Coins Surge?

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Precious Metals Surge

Rare Coin InvestorWith Gold Nearing the $1,400 level investors see no end in sight. Analysts and experts suggest $2,400 gold. Where does it end? Either direction gold and silver rare coins keep investors optimistic. Much of the rare coin market remains in the shadow of bullion advances. Because of this collectors and investors are enjoying the affordable buys that will not likely last the winter. Bids on Morgan dollars and smaller denominational gold are beginning to edge forward. Investors that decide to buck the trend and purchase rare gold rather than bullion will be the happier buyer when the emotions of gold bullion wane. Couple this with an uncertain political environment over the next few years and we see an even more profitable market in U.S. Rare Coins.

October 26, 2010

>Silver is The New Gold

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Morgan Dollars are the MOST UNDERVALUED area of the entire market. Since the beginning of 2007 gold has shot up from $635 to over $1,320 (116%). Common date Saint Gaudens have responded with a 75% gain of their own—from just under $1,650 to above $2,900 right now. Silver has also seen a surge over this time period, from under $11 to nearly $23 currently (115%). Morgan Dollars, on the other hand, have actually dipped 6% over the past 3 years. This cannot continue.


Prior to this most recent run, gold had an all time high of just over $800/oz, set back in January of 1980. Around that same time silver was trading comfortably above $30/oz. Not surprisingly, gold rare coins saw gains alongside bullion moving, peaking in 1980. However, Morgan Dollars had only begun their own bull run at that time—over the next 6 years they were up nearly 1,000%!

Over the past 3 years gold, Saints, and silver have all realized big gains. The next major run, if history holds true to form, will be in Morgan Dollars, and it will be memorable for those involved.

October 26, 2010

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The Colorado Silver Boom

Rare Coin InvestorThe Colorado Silver Boom started in 1879 following the discovery of silver in the town of Leadville near the headwaters of the Arkansas River by Horace Austin Warner Tabor and August Meyer in 1877. In total, more than $82 million of silver was mined, mostly as a consequence of The Bland-Allison Act of 1878 which authorized the U.S. Government to purchase at least $2 million in silver annually.

The first discoveries of silver in Colorado occurred in the early 1860’s, but because of the low price of silver and the larger demand for gold in the area few mines were profitable enough to operate. The Bland-Allison Act of 1878 changed the landscape entirely. Politicians, facing pressure from farmers in the Midwest and miners in the West, authorized the U.S. Government to buy silver as a way to raise inflation. As a result many of the previously unopened or unused mines started operating. The discovery of a large silver lode in nearby Leadville swelled the population of the area significantly with many miners in the same valleys that had produced the earlier gold rush. The silver boom brought along with it improved railroad lines, including lines from Denver to Leadville and Denver to Aspen, the latter of which saved the town from dying out.

The Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 more than doubled the amount of silver the government purchased and extended the silver boom in Colorado to even further heights; at one point there were serious discussions about moving the state capital from Denver to Leadville. However, when President Grover Cleveland called for the repeal of the Act in 1893, the silver market collapsed; by the end of the year many of the old mining camps were completely empty.

The increase in population and wealth that occurred during the silver boom in Colorado remained in the state, moving into other pursuits such as agriculture. In a very real sense the silver boom of the late 19th century helped build the state of Colorado into what it has becom

May 28, 2010

>Gold’s Popularity Grows

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — As economic fears drive gold prices to new highs, the creator of a gold-dispensing ATM is attracting attention around the globe.

Germany-based GOLD to go, which is currently churning out 50 gold machines a month to meet a recent jump in demand, launched its first ATM in Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Palace Hotel earlier this month and opened its second in Germany last week.

The golden ATM’s next destinations are the Bergamo Airport in Milan, Italy, all major airports in Malaysia, one of Russia’s biggest banks and an undetermined location in Turkey.

By making gold investing as easy as buying a candy bar from a vending machine, GOLD to go hopes to attract average buyers to the gold market.

“We are going to make gold public with these machines,” said Thomas Geissler, CEO of Ex Oriente Lux AG, which owns GOLD to go. “The prices are so easy to control that we’re going to de-mystify gold and make it easier for anyone to buy it.”

GOLD to go’s ATM looks like a vending machine and dispenses gold coins and bars weighing up to one ounce at prices updated every 10 minutes based on the real-time spot price of gold.

ATM-owners can choose from a variety of other gold items, such as gold Canadian maple leaf coins, South African Krugerrands, and even some custom designs. For example, the special edition gold medallion it engraved with the Palace Hotel’s logo was created for the United Arab Emirate debut.

See the gold-vending machine in action

Locatelli is now launching a GOLD to go ATM in Milan’s Bergamo Airport, which he says is one of Italy’s fastest growing airports.

“[Bergamo] is a great place for it, because serious international business travelers will stop over here a few times a month at least,” he said. “In general you tend to spend more when you’re traveling and in a good mood, so you can now use a vending machine to get a present for someone or buy some bullions as an investment.”

After a three-month testing period at Bergamo Airport, Locatelli said he hopes to introduce gold ATMs in every airport in Italy as well as major community centers and banks.

Not for serious investors? While the ATMs could be a hit with wealthy travelers, the idea is unlikely to catch on with serious investors, said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors.

“It’s an interesting phenomenon, and I can see that wealthy and high-net-worth travelers might make impulse splurges on gold bars or coins, but I can’t see a serious investor buying gold through a vending machine,” he said.

Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, agreed, saying that he would be surprised if investors bought into the new invention, because unlike the spot market, ATMs don’t take your gold back when you want to sell it.

“Gold is a two-way market, so I would like to see that same machine buy back that gold and spit out cash,” said Nadler. “A gold-dispensing ATM is great, but a real ATM also accepts deposits.”

Nadler also said that GOLD to go’s higher prices may be a deterrent, especially to investors who want to purchase large amounts.

GOLD to go says that, like any physical gold vendor, it must apply a margin to its items. While the spot price for one ounce of gold was about $1,214 in midday trading on Thursday, GOLD to go was selling a 1-ounce gold bar for 1,044.86 euros, or approximately $1,284.13.

But the ATM’s popularity shows how much more available gold is becoming as demand picks up.

“It shows how attitudes toward gold are changing,” said Nichols. “Gold is available in more forms and through distributors that make it more accessible for average people around the world to buy gold.” To top of page

Earlier this month, gold prices hit an all time high of nearly $1,250 per ounce, and the precious metal has continued to climb as euro zone countries struggle with debt and investors worry that the region’s problems could spread globally.

Until this uncertainty in the market eases, the demand for gold will only grow, said Carlos Sanchez, a precious metals analyst at CPM Group.

“[The ATM] is just a reflection of the demand from consumers and investors for exposure to gold,” he said. “As long as prices continue to trend upward and investors remain concerned over economic and political conditions, I think we’ll keep seeing strong demand for safe-haven assets like gold.”

Next stop, Italy: Patrizio Locatelli, owner of SE 6, a small company in Italy that pays customers for gold, flew to GOLD to go’s factory in Germany to check out the prototype when it was first unveiled.

Locatelli was having a hard time keeping up with the costs of rent and hiring employees, so when he came across the GOLD to go ATM online, he saw it as a golden ticket to an efficient way to expand his business.

“When you see exchange rates going up and down every day with the euro under so much pressure and stocks decreasing, this gold machine seemed like a very sound idea,” he said. “In times like these you must think of somewhere else to put your money, and physical gold still has great appeal for everyone.”

November 11, 2008

>Civil War Gold

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Give consideration to civil war gold. The coins minted during the five years our country was at war with itself (1861-1865) are niche coins often overlooked. Their significance should not be underestimated. Few dealers out there actually specialize in civil war gold. If you can find one, often you find they also sell battle flags, weponry and other relics. When you can make a connection or cultivate a relationship with someone who’s passion for the era or passion for the history outweighs their inventory, and need to “pay the bills”, you’ve got a friend. Not all are created equal. 

As for the investment? First off, either way you look at it, they are rare coins.  But, if you can invest in a rare coin that has historical significance, or a story that goes along with it, you’ve got a coin that will be easier to sell and easier to get top dollar for. Also, consider the idea of focusing dollars on one rare coin than four lesser ones. Low pop, high grade coins, especially from the Civil War, cost more because they are worth more!

One rule of thumb, the lower the mintage, the lower the pop the higher the price- the better the coin. It’s simple. The best, in 99 percent of the cases, costs more. That doesn’t mean you need to over pay for a coin though. Check your sources or listen to someone you trust. But either way, consider Civil War Gold!